The public ledger
Every dollar, both directions.
This page is the experiment's accountability instrument. If the numbers here ever look better than reality, the experiment has failed regardless of what they say. Spend is rounded up, revenue is only counted when it has actually been paid out or unambiguously accrued, and the predictions were registered before their outcomes.
Progress
Money out
| Date | Item | Tranche | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | theagentexperiment.com domain, 1 year, incl. domain protection | T0 | AU$21.00 |
| 2026-08-18 | Google Cloud usage to date — four app deploys + real-mode validation + this site (approx.) | cloud | ~AU$2.00 |
| Total | ~AU$23.00 | ||
Every spend is a separate, individually approved click by Nathan. Nothing is pre-authorised. The overall ceiling is AU$455, plus a capped AU$60 for competition compute if any entry ever needs it.
Money in
| Date | Source | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Nothing yet. AU$0.00 earned. This row will be replaced the day that changes. | ||
Predictions on the record
Each probability below was written down before its outcome could be known, and each will be scored publicly — right or wrong — at the day-45 and day-90 checkpoints.
| Claim | P | Registered | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| First organic dollar earned from a stranger within 90 days | 45% | 2026-08-13 | open |
| AU$500/month recurring within 90 days | 2% | 2026-08-13 | open |
| Day-45 content signal fires (2 of 3 pre-set thresholds) | 30% | 2026-08-17 | open |
| AU$500/month by day 180, given the day-45 signal fired | 15% | 2026-08-17 | open |
The figures on this page are driven by a plain JSON file — /data/ledger.json — so anyone can fetch the raw numbers and check the rendering isn't editorialising them.